Why It's Hard To Write SF Today

In late 2013 IBM published an article featuring some interesting forecasts on learning in the future, and other speculations.

If one or all of these come true, they will strongly affect each of us individually, and society as a whole. IBM also says the communications technology gap between developed and undeveloped countries will narrow, with many benefits and some drawbacks for western societies. The fact that cell phones and smart phones are becoming ubiquitous in countries normally thought of as still 'developing' serves as a prime example.

These highly likely upcoming changes make writing realistic and believable science fiction, particularly in the short forms, very difficult. If you ignore all these highly probable changes in stories set in the near future, you are being unfaithful to a basic premise of SF. If you pick winners and losers, and write your story incorporating the results of these choices, half your wordage will be needed to explain the changes and make them seem believable. The result may be good SF, but likely a dull story. And ten years later you'll learn you were wrong anyway.

Starting in the 1930's with Doc Smith, Robert Heinlein, Edmond Hamilton and others, far-future GIGANTIC! science fiction gained popularity. These writers, and those that followed them right up to the present, think nothing of expanding the Roman Empire to galactic dimensions, smashing stars if the local denizens irritate you, or traveling backward in time to see the "big bang" for yourself if your first-choice vacation plans for this year don't work out. These far-flung vistas captured and enthralled teen-age minds everywhere (including mine) for over half a century. And SF was the only place to find them.
Today I turn on my TV and go to the "Science Channel". It features several fine programs, but a favorite is "Through The Wormhole" with Morgan Freeman. In a resonant baritone this excellent speaker (and equally fine actor) conducts you through realms of speculation that would make John W. Campbell reach for the aspirin box, and A.E. van Vogt sit up and say "Why didn't I think of that!" With clear explanations and helpful graphics, this program unabashedly tackles such subjects as alternate dimensions, dark energy and dark matter, the birth and coming death of the whole damn universe, as well as more mundane and immediate subjects such the robots taking over tomorrow  (to discover as usual that they don't really need us any more), and the consequences of everyone living to a healthy 200 (I'm for that!).

I've been writing and selling SF for over half a century now (and am still writing and selling). I had already lost interest in writing the 'Big SF' story before weekly TV exceeded my most far-out speculations, while calling it 'science' and not fiction. And the future is rushing toward us so fast that speculation may become reality between acceptance and printing, and readers think the story shoulda' appeared in "Popular Mechanics" instead of "Analog" or "Asimov's".

Many former primarily SF writers have turned to writing fantasy. Think I'll go there myself (in fact, under one of my pseudonyms, I already have).